A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the nation and caused chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in academia but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has got valuable insights to gain from the opposing positions."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
